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The Trend Of Cotton In The First Half Is Difficult To Predict.

2010/8/25 20:25:00 55

Recently, the average price of the national cotton store fell below 18000 yuan / ton (net weight).

ICE

The price of cotton under the guidance of futures is "high". In addition, most foreign businessmen are selling the US cotton, West African cotton and Brazil cotton in the 1-3 months of 2011. The domestic cotton enterprises are hard to predict the cotton trend in the first half of next year. Therefore, in the past two or three weeks, the contracted volume of foreign textile enterprises of Chinese textile enterprises has declined significantly, and the enthusiasm of inquiry is not high.

Some large textile enterprises indicated that the main concerns of cotton imports were high-grade cotton, Central Asian cotton (Uzbekistan cotton accounted for 80%) and India cotton with relatively good price performance. But the December shipment of American cotton was already full. Although the Ministry of Commerce of India announced the "free export" of cotton, the actual control of India's textile sector, the 2500 rupee / ton export tax was abolished. There was no official response. The export policy was likely to "change" at any time.

At present, the shipping date of several major international cotton traders in December

India

Cotton quotes are all higher than West African cotton, basically equal to EMOT cotton in the United States. The Central Asian cotton basically has no quotations, especially Uzbekistan, a big exporter of cotton, which has been very low-key in recent years. On the one hand, the cotton producing area is drought, and cotton output and grade are affected by different degrees. Some agencies believe that cotton production in Uzbekistan will be reduced by 30% in the 2010/11 year. On the other hand, the domestic cotton enterprises' demand for Uzbekistan cotton is very stable in recent years. The import volume of Uzbekistan Zhangjiagang in a factory in Zhangjiagang and Wuxi in Zhangjiagang accounts for more than 70% of its cotton demand. Therefore, most of them signed a procurement contract with several Uzbekistan cotton export enterprises in 5 and June.

In August 22nd, China's main port free trade zone EMOTM grade cotton.

offer

Concentrated in the 93.10-93.30 cents / lb (12/1 shipping date), the India Shankar-6M class cotton is quoted at 93.40-93.60 cents / lb (11/12 shipping date), and the price of stanzstein M grade cotton in Uzbek is 96.40-96.60 cents / lb (12/1 shipping date).

From the price point of view, under the sliding tariff, the net weight pick-up price of China cotton main and India cotton free trade zone is about 16600-16700 yuan / ton, which is about 300-500 yuan / ton less than Zheng cotton CF1101 contract.

The tax quota and the 1% tariff quota were rarely traded. First, the cotton prices rose sharply, while the domestic cotton prices declined, and the spot price difference quickly narrowed. The price of sliding tax quotas fell to 140-150 yuan / ton, and nearly two days had rebounded to 230-250 yuan / ton. The enterprises with quotas were "clutching up"; the two was that the sliding tax quotas were valid until December 31st, while the current US cotton and Central Asian cotton shipping dates were all 12/1 months. Cotton mills were afraid that they could not reach the main port of China before the end of the year, so the enthusiasm for using them was not high; three, some cotton spinning enterprises believed that the international economic situation had deteriorated, and the US dollar would be stronger in the later stage of the dollar, and the trend of cotton weakening with global commodities was inevitable. Recently, some importers showed that the market was slippery.