Cottonseed Market Is Still Hot &Nbsp, Downstream Industries Are Bottlenecks.

Throughout the National Day

First, seed cotton prices continue to rise, boosting cotton seed prices high.

Since the launch of the seed cotton, the good news from all sides has been that the price of planting area is reduced, production is reduced, weather is rainy and so on, and prices continue to rise. International cotton export restrictions in India and cotton futures continue to surge, which further supports seed cotton prices rising all the way and entering the October.

Recently, the high price of seed cotton has reached 6 yuan / Jin line in some areas. Although there are 5.40-5.50 yuan / Jin price in some areas, its water content is basically 17-20%, the price is still low, and the quality is relatively poor. In most areas, the price of seed cotton is 5.60-5.90 yuan / Jin (water is at 12-15%), which is at a new high in history.

The rising cost of seed cotton has brought support to the cotton mill for raising cotton seed prices, and cottonseed has been rising and refreshing its calendar year.

Second, cotton lint keeps on rushing to catch up the high price of cottonseed.

Recently, cotton lint has been washed up again. The high price of Shandong and Hebei has reached 12000 yuan / ton, generally high 11600-11800 yuan / ton line, leading the domestic market; other regions are also low in 9700-10000 yuan / ton line.

High price cotton lint has strong support for cotton seed price, keeping it high and difficult to pose.

Third, the quality of cottonseed is worrying, and the rate of processing output is seriously reduced.

After the new flower is listed, the seed cotton is basically in a state of panic buying, and the quality requirements of the purchase are reduced. Cotton farmers in many areas shorten the drying process and even pick them up for sale. The water is large, and some areas are as high as 20-30%.

This situation has serious consequences for cottonseed quality. When high moisture cotton seeds are processed, the breakage rate is higher, resulting in partial loss. Moreover, cottonseed is difficult to store, and more than three days can be mildew. The acid value of processing oil is higher, and the oil yield in some areas has been greatly reduced, from the normal 11-12% oil rate in previous years to 7-9% or even 4-6%.

Manufacturers reflect that the price of cottonseed is too high. Now the output rate has also been abnormal. The processing cost of the oil plant has risen sharply, and the loss is more obvious.

At present, many start-up oil refineries have downtime plans, the market is more chaotic.

Fourthly, cotton by-products are not up to sale.

Cottonseed prices continue to rise, the passive parts of the downstream products are rising. In addition to the high performance of cotton lint and cotton hull, the market of cottonseed oil and cottonseed meal is not ideal at present.

Recently, the domestic high price of cottonseed oil is at the level of 9400-9600 yuan / ton, the general price is 8600-8900 yuan / ton line, which is not the same as the domestic soybean oil, some areas are higher than the four grade soybean oil price, the whole paction is not good, the retail price is high; the 40% protein cottonseed meal is quoted at 2580-2700 yuan / ton line, and the rapeseed meal price is in the 2250-2400 yuan / ton line at present, the domestic 43% protein soybean meal price is generally in the 3620-3680 yuan / ton line, and the cottonseed meal has no cost performance advantage.

And with the cooling of temperature, aquaculture needs to be lower and lower demand for cottonseed meal downstream.

At present, the price of oil meal is a drag on the formation of high priced cottonseed. Many oil plants have to passively increase the price of products because of the high price of raw materials.

The market is in a dilemma.

Fifthly, the quantity of cottonseed is insufficient and the supply and demand are tight.

At present, the oil factories in various places can not guarantee normal processing, mainly due to the small amount of seed cotton purchase, the limited rate of cotton ginning and the tight supply and demand of cottonseeds.

Many oil plants have not been switched on yet, and some oil plants have been shut down. Only a few small oil plants are able to maintain normal start-up.

Tension between supply and demand makes cotton seed prices difficult to sustain, and further supports its market.

Under the hot market situation, it is difficult to cope with the heavy losses of the processing industry. Who will pay the high priced raw materials?

The industry believes that the high yield of cottonseed that is not supported by products will not last too long, and the market will stabilize its market with its supply and demand and comprehensive factors.

In recent years, the price of lint cotton has been controlled by the state, and there has also been a high and volatile market. The future cotton seed, lint, cottonseed and cotton by-products are bound to come out of a stable and reasonable route. Let's wait and see.