RMB To Us Dollar Record High And Euro Appreciation Cycle

In September 21st, according to China

Since September, this is the second time that the RMB has reached a new high, and the appreciation of RMB seems to be accelerating.

However, Li Huiyong, chief macroeconomic analyst of Shenyang Wanguo, told our correspondent that this is just a sign of increasing RMB exchange rate elasticity, and that the rate of appreciation of the US dollar is still within the expected range. By the end of this year, the RMB will rise to 6.3 against the US dollar.

However, it is worth noting that recently, the renminbi has reached a new high of two years against the euro.

In September 20th, China's foreign exchange center data showed that the Yuan's high price of 8.7084 against the euro was the highest in the past two years.

This was a new high in early September when the yuan broke 9 against the euro's middle price.

Since September 1st, the RMB has appreciated rapidly against the euro for more than half a month, and the appreciation of the central parity has reached more than 4600 basis points.

Analysts believe that the news of the downgrading of Italy's rating was once pressure on the euro.

Since the S & P's downgrading of Italy has exacerbated fears of the spread of the European debt crisis, the euro will continue its downward trend in the near future.

The appreciation cycle of RMB against the euro.

China's exports to Europe are not optimistic.

A few days ago, Moodie, an international credit rating agency, said that it would strive to complete its assessment of Italy in October, when it would decide whether to lower Italy's rating.

Moodie remained on the "Aa2" rating of Italy before, but the outlook remained negative.

In September 19th, S & P suddenly announced that Italy's sovereign debt rating would be downgraded to "A/A-1" and its outlook remained negative.

S & P believes Italy's economic growth is slow, and the government is unable to save the economy, which will have a direct impact on the overall economic situation of the European Union.

At the same time, S & P also lowered its forecast for Italy's economic growth, and the country's economic growth forecast from 2011 to 2014 dropped from 1.3% to 0.7%.

The downgrading of Italy's rating has exacerbated the European debt crisis and added uncertainty to the economic outlook of Europe and the United States.

According to the researchers, Italy is an economic entity with a pivotal position in the euro area countries, which can affect the European economic trend.

Its public debt amounted to $2 trillion and 600 billion, which is far more debt than Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland.

In the short term, the euro debt problem is hard to solve, and the euro is hard to get the favor of the international market. For a long time, it is difficult for the euro to present a strong situation.

The European debt crisis has a negative impact on China's exports to Europe.

The European debt crisis has led to the lack of domestic demand in Europe and the depreciation of the euro to the renminbi, which has led to a decline in the competitiveness of China's export products.

Ministry of commerce data also showed that in 1-8 months, my exports to the European Union and the United States increased by 22.8% and 12.3% respectively, lower than the overall increase by 1.7 and 12.2 percentage points respectively.