Analysis Of The Future Trend Of RMB Exchange Rate

Less than 5 months after the P depreciation, the a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com" > RMB exchange rate < /a > has been recovering from this week.

In June 9th, the RMB went up against the dollar, hitting a 20 month high.

The spot exchange rate and the middle price both rose 100%.

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< p > the industry generally believes that the substantial appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is mainly affected by many factors. In May, the trade data changed dramatically, coupled with the stimulus of the European Central Bank's easing policy.

There is a view that this is the signal of the depreciation of the renminbi in the year.

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< p > < strong > experts have great differences in the market outlook, < /strong > /p >

< p > there is still a big difference between the market and the RMB exchange rate.

The traders interpreted it as the stability of the central bank, while the industry experts judged it based on all kinds of data. It is expected that the appreciation of the market will take the lead in the coming period.

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Xie Yaxuan, an analyst at China Merchants Securities (600999, stock bar), thinks that from the basic analysis, we can deduce that the RMB exchange rate will be more likely to rise in the next stage. P

On the one hand, from domestic factors, the seasonal rise of trade balance in May and June will bring about the improvement of foreign exchange supply and demand under trade. On the other hand, from the perspective of international factors, the negative interest rate policy of the European Central Bank may push international capital back to emerging economies.

The central bank's intervention in the foreign exchange market after the exchange reform will result in more changes in the above factors on the rise of the RMB exchange rate, rather than the increase in foreign exchange reserves.

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< p > > China a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com" > financial futures < /a > Zhao Qingming, chief macroeconomic researcher of Beijing Financial Derivatives Research Institute, said that the RMB is approaching the medium-term equilibrium. Of course, this balance is also under the "management" of the monetary authority, and does not rule out the possibility that the RMB will fall to 6.30 against the US dollar over the next period of time.

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< p > < strong > expert: RMB has no reason to depreciate continuously < /strong > < /p >

Wang Tianlong, deputy researcher of China P International Economic Exchange Center, said that the central bank has raised the central parity of RMB against the US dollar. Recently, China's trade situation, economic and financial situation support the relevant monetary policy of the central bank.

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< p > the recent exchange rate trend is related to the developed countries' support for extremely loose monetary policy. Recently, the Central Bank of the major developed economies further implemented the policy of currency drainage, and cheap money flows to RMB assets.

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The reason why P has no sustained depreciation is that China's good economic fundamentals are the sea god pin of the RMB exchange rate.

From the perspective of the situation, the renminbi will fluctuate in the short term, and will not continue to depreciate, nor will it sustain a unilateral appreciation.

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< p > Guotai Junan: the RMB exchange rate will continue to depreciate in the second half of the year, < /p >

Xue Hexiang, a macroeconomic analyst at Guotai Junan, said, "the market may be overly expecting the depreciation of < a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_cj.asp "> /a > /a, but most people may not be very sensitive when the trend reverses at the beginning."

He stressed that from the general trend of the second half of the year, although there will be a slight appreciation in a certain stage, it will prefer the direction of the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate.

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