Crude Oil Bottomed Out PTA, Polyester Followed, Weaving Market Lost Team!

Last Friday (June 7th), international oil prices rebounded sharply.

On the 7 day, the New York Mercantile Exchange West Texas light oil futures clearing price in July 2019 was $53.99 per barrel, up 1.40 US dollars or 2.7% over the previous trading day.

In recent days, oil prices have plummeted and bottomed out.

Oil prices are more likely to rebound.

1. High yield of crude oil

Last week, US crude oil output hit a record high of 12 million 400 thousand barrels a day.

The US shale oil technology development has made the United States the largest oil producing country in the world. It has been reported that crude oil output in the seven key shale oil production areas in the United States in 2019 averaged 8 million 495 thousand barrels per day, 83 thousand barrels higher than the revised daily output of crude oil in May, and the crude oil output in May was revised to 8 million 412 thousand barrels, which was originally estimated at 8 million 460 thousand barrels.

The rapid growth of crude oil production in the United States has led to the market's unease about oversupply.

2. OPEC is close to agreeing to a reduction agreement.

At the end of December last year, OPEC and non OPEC allies reached an agreement on joint production reduction of 1 million 200 thousand barrels per day, which was implemented in January this year, with a preliminary setting period of 6 months.

Recently, the Saudi energy minister Falich said that OPEC and Russia and other non OPEC oil producers should extend the implementation time of the production reduction agreement. At present, OPEC is close to extending the production reduction agreement to reach an agreement after June, but it still needs to adopt the non OPEC oil producing countries participating in the production reduction at the end of June or the beginning of July.

3, the US dollar continues to weaken.

Last Friday, US nonfarm data showed that the number of non farm payrolls increased by 75 thousand in May, the lowest level in 3 months, reflecting the weakness of the US economy.

Coupled with the possibility of a lower interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, the US dollar continued to weaken, and the weakening dollar also brought support to oil prices.

The rise of crude oil has led to a surge in PTA.

On the 10 day, the PTA futures of Zhengzhou commercial bank opened sharply in early trading, and the main 1909 contract opened at 5270 yuan / ton. Compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, it rose by 132 yuan / ton, or more than 4%.

As of 3 p.m. closing, PTA to 5230 yuan / ton end, compared with the previous trading day settlement price, a substantial increase of 182 yuan / ton!

Since mid April, the futures price of PTA has been dropping continuously. The main contract 1909 has dropped from 6400 yuan / ton to 5100 yuan / ton, and now PTA has rebounded. In addition to the pressure on downstream polyester stocks and the pull up of PX on Thursday and Friday, it is still affected by the rise in crude oil prices.

Crude oil rose, PTA rose, polyester production and sales were hot.

The first two days, influenced by crude oil and PTA inflation, the production and sales of polyester and silk products in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces soared, and the average production and sales remained at about 220%. According to the data of China's silk net, the current stock of polyester filament was concentrated in 12-21 days. In terms of specific products, POY stocks were concentrated in 5-9 days, and FDY stores existed for about 11-16 days, while DTY stocks were in 19-25 days.

Last week polyester production and marketing were "short-lived", but production and sales are better now. If downstream demand can be increased, production and marketing will continue to be favorable in the short term.

The weaving end was left behind.

The downstream weaving factories have been afraid to hoard raw materials until now, and now the price of raw materials has been rising.

When stockpiling raw materials, it is necessary to produce and sell.

According to statistics, there are about 42 days for weaving end storehouse. At present, the loom start up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is still maintained at 7-8 percent. The market is not good, but cloth boss is afraid to stop because of various factors.

In addition, the quantity of orders has not improved. It is evident that weaving inventory will increase in a short period of time.

Fancy selling of low-end products will continue.

But in the short term, the upstream market will be better, which will not have much impact on the downstream polyester market and weaving Market. The market in the downstream market is still affected by the terminal demand, and the terminal needs to be high. No matter whether the price of raw materials rises or not, it will replenish the stock and further boost the upstream market to the right direction.